Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil

Crude Oil rally is likely to take it close to Rs 6330 per barrel. Crude oil tested a low of Rs 6224 per barrel and settled at Rs 6285 per barrel. The short term supports for Crude are active at Rs 6210 and 6174 per barrel. The initial targets of Crude oil are at Rs 6330 and 6350 per barrel. Increase in Open interest and volumes are a sign that a rally towards the upper cap is possible.

Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: U.S Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly In July

The U.S Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in June, pulled back slightly in July. The Index now stands at 80.3 (1985=100), down from 82.1 in June. The Present Situation Index increased to 73.6 from 68.7. The Expectations Index decreased to 84.7 from 91.1 last month.

Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Bounces Back In Asia

Gold........

Gold futures bounced back in the Asia electronic session today as investors prepared for a statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, as well as the preliminary estimate of second-quarter growth for the world’s largest economy.

The U.S. currency, as tracked by the ICE dollar index, is coming off a third straight weekly loss, dragged lower by expectations that the Fed will reiterate its stance on keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future.

The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s movement against six other major currencies, rose to 81.856, up from 81.815 late Tuesday in North America. The euro bought $1.3260, slightly less than $1.3265 on Tuesday.

Gold for December delivery is trading up $6.6 at $ 1331.4 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it fell $4.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,324.80 an ounce after Monday’s gain of $7.70, or 0.6%.

The consumer confidence index fell slightly in July to 80.3 from an upwardly revised 82.1 in June, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

Traders expect the FOMC to emphasize an accommodative monetary policy. Though many economists see the Fed as likely to decrease the amount of bond buying at its September meeting, there’s also speculation that tapering will begin near the end of the year or later. The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

Before the central bank’s announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern time, the U.S. Commerce Department will release second-quarter gross domestic product numbers. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are due to each release statements on monetary policy Thursday.

MCX October gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 28350-400 levels with resistance near Rs 28550 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For Day: Gold

Gold................

Gold breached the ascending triangle pattern for August contract. With few days left in August expiry contract to expire, the interest is quickly shifting towards October contract. In October contract, resistance of Rs 27777 per 10 grams was broken as Gold closed at Rs 27872 per 10 grams. The next resistance is at Rs 28300 and 28400 levels. Looking at the open interest generation in this contract it seems that upside targets will be achieved in the contract. The rise of 1.33% yesterday was with very heavy volumes of 11782 kgs, not seen for this contract since initiation.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For Day: Copper

Even after a minor recovery in Copper

, the prices are still not out of woods. The prices of November expiry contract settled at Rs 418.6 per kg, up 0.54%. The metal is expected to remain under Rs 420 per kg, considering the stiff resistance at Rs 418-419 per kg. Medium term resistance is at Rs 430 per kg. The extreme bottom for the prices are at Rs 403 per kg, while an intermediate supports are active at Rs 409 per kg. The volumes were pretty lower 3066 kg on Monday. The pressure from bears are expected to remain active in today's trades.

Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Weaker Ahead Of RBI Review

The Indian rupee edged down slightly on Monday, July 29, 2013 on month-end dollar demand from importers and ahead of the central bank's rate review on Tuesday. A weak opening to the local equities market also weighed down the currency. The domestic currency commenced lower by 9 paise at Rs 59.13 to a dollar and dropped to a low of 59.32 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.2450, weaker by around 21 paise or 0.35% as compared to previous close at 59.04.On Friday, the Indian rupee hit a five-week high as the central bank's measures to drain liquidity shore up the currency. The rupee's gains come after the Reserve Bank of India followed up on its measures last week to drain cash to defend the rupee with additional tightening measures on Tuesday. Domestic key benchmark indices extended initial losses to hit fresh intraday low in morning trade as weakness in Asian stocks dampened sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex hit 2-1/2-week low. The 50-unit CNX Nifty hit its lowest level in almost three weeks. Asian stocks retreated on Monday, 29 July 2013, with Japanese equities skidding as a firm yen further dragged on the nation's exporters, while Chinese shares lost ground amid economic worries. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 94.71 points or 0.48% to 19.653.48 while the CNX Nifty was down 31.10 points or 0.53% to 5,855.10. Meanwhile, the dollar was on the defensive in Asia on Monday as investors braced for an event-packed week that includes central bank meetings in the United States and Europe, manufacturing data from China and U.S. growth and jobs figures. The euro was above 1.32 to the dollar. The dollar index was around 81.50 levels and the dollar yen was around 98 levels. Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Extends Weekly Gains

Gold.......

Gold futures

started the week on an optimistic note, extending its last week's gains in the Asia electronic session today. The start attractions this week are the Non Farm Payrolls data and the second-quarter GDP data.

Gold futures for August delivery are trading up $5.5 at $ 1327 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It dropped 0.55% on Friday to settle the week at $1,321.50 a troy ounce.

On the week, gold prices added 0.69%. The metal is likely to face a resistance near $1350-1400 levels in the near term. The commodity jumped to almost five-week high of USD1,347.85 a troy ounce on Tuesday, a day after a weaker-than-expected report on U.S. home sales fueled market talk that the Federal Reserve will keep stimulus measures in place for now.

The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that existing home sales fell 1.2% to 5.08 million units in June, missing market calls for sales to rise 0.6% to 5.25 million units in June. Sales for May were revised down to 5.14 million from a previously reported 5.18 million.

On the data front this week, we have pending home sales, house prices, consumer confidence, construction spending, and the manufacturing PMI, and private sector jobs from US. While jobs number provide each months US data highlight, this week will also see the release of the first estimate of June quarter GDP on Wednesday and a Fed policy meeting to boot. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank all hold policy-setting meetings this week.

MCX August gold futures may open today's session near Rs 27600 levels with resistance near Rs 27700 and support near Rs 27520 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Continues To Press Lower, MCX Futures Down 3% Last Week

Copper......

MCX Copper

futures are expected to open a tick lower today as the metal continues to face selling pressure in world markets. Asian equities are down half a percent and worries posed by Chinese demand slowdown are hurting copper. The benchmark COMEX Copper futures are down 0.23% at $3.098 per pound. Rio Tinto PLC said today that it is selling its majority stake in a copper-and-gold mine in Australia for US$820 million to a Chinese resources company, in its latest move to bolster its balance sheet amid a global slowdown in commodities demand. Copper slipped from its six-week highs as the metal felt the pressure of weak Chinese demand. China's manufacturing activity slowed to an 11-month low in July, the first evidence of the Asian economic giant losing further momentum in third quarter. In a survey, British banking giant HSBC said its preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) hit 47.7 this month, down from a final 48.2 in June and the lowest since August. China's government has ordered companies to close factories in 19 industries where overproduction has led to price-cutting wars, affirming its determination to push ahead with a painful economic restructuring despite slowing growth. The growth in the second largest economy in world has slipped to decade low of around 7.5% and has kept a lid on copper prices over last one and half years. Rising inventories and a surplus in global market have also had a depressing effect. ICSG has reported earlier this week that the world copper markets were in surplus of 50000 tonnes in April 2013. After making seasonal adjustments, the Copper markets were in production surplus of 106000 tonnes. The world copper markets were in surplus of 266000 tonnes in the first four months of 2013. MCX Copper futures slipped nearly 3% last week with the losses exacerbated by the gains in Indian Rupee. The counter ended just above Rs 408 per kg levels and continue extend the slide further today. Overall range is likely to be Rs 405-409.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil

Oil......

The profit booking pressure is active in Crude Oil and the prices are expected to continue to suffer in the hands of bears. Further pressure from Rs 6300 per barrel is expected to be created in the contract. The prices managed to close near to the highest point of the day at Rs 6261 per barrel. A breach of Rs 6220 and 6200 per barrel is likely after the formation of shooting star pattern in the candlesticks.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For The Day: Copper

Copper.......

Copper

settled at Rs 417.5 per kg on MCX on Thursday. Yet again, the breach of Rs 422 per kg looked difficult during the day. The prices only managed to test a high of only Rs 419.4 per kg. The upper trendline resistance seems intact at the moment. The same parallel range that has been active between Rs 411 and 423, is expected to remain in place. For Friday, support zone for Copper is at Rs 413 per kg while Resistance is at Rs 422 per kg.

Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Holds Gains In Asia

Oil.......

Crude oil

futures held on to its gains near $ 105 a barrel levels in the Asia electronic trades today buoyed by the positive data from US.

Positive economic news tends to boost oil prices since it raises expectations about improvement in energy demand. Data Thursday showed a 4.2% jump in U.S. durable-goods orders for June, the third straight big monthly gain. The first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product in the U.K. showed 0.6% quarterly growth, in line with expectations.

Crude oil for September delivery is trading up 6 cents at $ 105.55 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it added 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $105.49 a barrel after touching a low of $104.08 in electronic trading.

Oil prices on Wednesday fell 1.7% after an HSBC report showed preliminary manufacturing activity in China — among the world’s largest oil consumers.

Taking a look at the long term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook report on Thursday released a forecast that world energy consumption will grow by 56% between 2010 and 2040 to 820 quadrillion British thermal units from 524 quadrillion Btus. Most of the growth will come from countries that aren’t part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The EIA didn’t release an international energy outlook report in 2012. In 2011, it said it expected world energy consumption to grow by 53% from 2008 to 2035.

On the data front today, Japan's consumer prices managed to register mild inflation in June compared with a year earlier, data out Friday from the Finance Ministry showed. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh-food costs, rose 0.4% from June 2012, though it was unchanged compared to May's levels.

MCX August crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6235 levels with support around Rs 6200 and resistance near Rs 6290 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Rises On Haven Buying

Gold.......

Gold futures rose in the Asia electronic trades today as losses in equity markets triggered safe haven buying in the metal. Yesterday, the metal ended lower, marking its first decline in four sessions just after the metal’s biggest one-day price gain in more than a year.

Gold for August delivery is trading up $6.2 at $ 1340.9 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it eased $1.30, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,334.70 an ounce.

On Monday, the August contract jumped $43.10, or 3.3%, to $1,336 an ounce. That represented the largest one-day percentage and dollar gain since June 29, 2012. The settlement was also the highest for a most-active contract since June 19 of this year.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday put further curbs on gold import mandating that banks and nominated agencies should retain 20 percent (or one fifth) of every lot of gold imports in the customs bonded warehouses. They will be able to import further gold only if they release the 75 percent of that stored gold for the purpose of exports.

The restrictions are meant to contain gold imports, which in addition to oil, is putting pressure on the current account deficit that soared to a record high of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13.

The RBI and the government have taken measures to curb the rampant demand for gold, which makes India the world's biggest buyer and sent May imports to a record 162 tonnes as people took advantage of falling prices.

MCX August gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 27540 levels with resistance near Rs 27600-620 around Rs 27460-40 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For The Day: Copper

Copper.......

Benchmark MCX Copper prices were yet again in trouble reaching Rs 422 per kg. The August contract settled at Rs 421.85 per kg, up 0.50 percent. Expectations for the prices to cross the hurdle of Rs 422 per kg are grim considering the weak PMI numbers of China. The opening is expected to be dull. The parallel trading channel of Copper between Rs 422-424 on higher side and Rs 413-411, on the lower side remains unthreatened at this juncture. The far month November expiry contract looks tugged at Rs 430-432, on higher side. Open interest has remained averaging around 25400 in the last few days. Volumes on the other hand are getting weak considering the expiry is the next week.

Trading Strategy: SELL MCX COPPER AUG AT 422.5-423 TARGET 417 SL 425.5

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For The Day: Gold

Gold.......

MCX Gold August contract closed at Rs 27574 per 10 grams, gaining only 0.05 percent in the day. The prices were on the way to test Rs 27800 as the target before profit booking kicked in. The consolidation in Gold got broken this week as the prices managed to surpass Rs 26700 per 10 grams as the key Resistance. The rally has been supported by steady open interest. The bulls will still be active once the profit taking gets over. The immediate targets for the day however will be revised to Rs 27650.

Trading Strategy: BUY MCX GOLD AT 27350 TARGET 27650 SL 27280

Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Ends Weak

The Indian rupee closed weaker on Monday, July 22, 2013 on account of choppy local shares and a strong demand for the greenback from domestic importers. The domestic currency commenced at Rs 59.30, higher by around 5 paise and dropped lower though the day. It is about a percent above its record low of 61.21 hit on July 8. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.73, lower by around 38 paise or 0.64% as compared to previous close at 59.35. The rupee gained on Friday after the central bank was rumoured to be intervening late in the session to support the currency that has floundered and been on the verge of wiping out all gains since policymakers' measures to drain liquidity.
Concerns have risen about the success of the steps after the government cancelled a treasury bill sale and the central bank had to reject most bids at a special bond sale as investors demanded higher yields. At least the rupee drew some solace from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's comments that the RBI can withdraw measures once short term pressures ease.
Domestic benchmark indices provisionally closed near the flat line after witnessing intraday volatility. Asian markets edged higher on Monday, 22 July 2013, after China removed a floor on banks' lending rates and after Japan's ruling government regained control of the parliament's upper house, raising hopes for further reforms in both economies. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 252.26 crore on Friday, 19 July 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the provisional closing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 8.59 points or 0.04% to 20,158.44. The CNX Nifty was up 1.45 points or 0.02% to 6,030.65, as per provisional figure.
EUR/USD trades in the mid-1.31 range in Monday's European session. The market reaction to US Fed chair Bernard Bernanke's testimony last week in Washington was quite restrained, and had little impact on EUR/USD.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Jumps Near 2% In Europe

Gold......
Gold futures are trading steady near 1 month highs supported by weakness in the dollar and strong oil futures. Today, the metal struck as high as $1322.50 an ounce, its highest since June 20.
Oil for August delivery rose 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $108.45 a barrel in electronic trade with weakness in the dollar providing a platform for the commodity to reach for a new 52-week high.

Gold for August delivery climbed $25.70, or 2%, to $1,318.90 an ounce in electronic trade on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It ended up 0.7% to $1,292.90, the highest settlement for a most-active contract since June 19.
Gold prices finished last week higher by 1.2%, gaining in part after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in congressional testimony that the central bank had no set timetable for slowing its monetary stimulus. The stimulus measures, known as quantitative easing, have been considered supportive for gold prices.
The dollar-denominated commodity benefitted from a decline in the greenback overnight, with the moves weighing on the ICE dollar index. The dollar lost some ground against the Japanese yen as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party consolidated its power in this weekend’s election.
Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets in gold and silver futures and options in the week to July 16, while they trimmed net shorts in copper, a report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
MCX August gold futures are trading up nearly Rs 400 at Rs 27090 per 10 grams. The counter hit a high of Rs 27180 earlier today.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Swiss June Trade Balance Rises

Federal Statistical Office said that Swiss Trade Balance rose to a seasonally adjusted CHF 2.732B, from CHF 2.123B in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from CHF 2.224B. Analysts had expected Swiss Trade Balance to fall to CHF 1.850B last month.
Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Snaps Gains

The Indian rupee commenced weaker on Thursday, July 18, 2013 despite positive local shares as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech was slightly more dovish than the market expected. The domestic currency opened lower by 28 paise at Rs 59.63 to a dollar and edged up to a high of 59.56 before dipping back to a low of 59.79 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.77, down almost 42 paise or 0.71% as compared to previous close at 59.35.
Rupee posted slight falls on Wednesday as continued dollar demand from importers eroded early gains from the government's decision to relax foreign direct investment rules in various sectors. The currency's weakness, in spite of strong steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India late on Monday to support the currency, shows demand for dollars remains strong, overriding the central bank's attempt to stamp down on speculation. India relaxed foreign direct investment (FDI) rules on Tuesday in a broad swath of industries including telecoms, to prop up a sliding currency and increase confidence about the record high current account deficit.
Domestic key benchmark indices edged higher in early trade on mostly higher Asian stocks. Asian shares inched up to a near five-week high on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to keep monetary policy easy for the foreseeable future. India's barometer index, the BSE Sensex, moved above the psychological 20,000 mark. The CNX Nifty hit the psychological 6,000 mark. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 26.09 crore on Wednesday, 17 July 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 101.28 points or 0.51% to 20,050.01 while the CNX Nifty was up 28.90 points or 0.48% to 6,002.20.
Meanwhile, the dollar held on to modest overnight gains early in Asia on Thursday after a choppy session that saw investors first sell then buy back the currency in reaction to Bernanke's comments. The euro holds above 1.31 to the dollar. The dollar index was below the 83 mark.
Powered by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For the Day: Crude

Oil.......

MCX Crude is in a narrow trading band as the skepticism for further pullback rally in prices look dim. The prices managed to corner some gains of Rs 53 per barrel and settled at Rs 6295 per barrel. Going forward the cap of Rs 6350 and 6400 is near. The prices are expected to succumb from those levels to move down. Interesting to note, that open interest in the near month contract has shown steady decline in last few days. Even the volumes have declined to 103563. The base for this contract is at Rs 6210 per barrel levels.
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL AROUND 6350-6360, TARGET 6270 SL 6410
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Australia May Westpac Leading Index Shows Upside

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 4.9 per cent in May - above its long-term trend of 3 per cent but lower than its April reading of 5.4 per cent. The leading indicator of Australia's economic activity improved in May, while staying above its long-term trend for a sixth consecutive month, a report from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute revealed Wednesday.
With the improvement in the Index being narrowly based around the quarterly components of corporate profits and productivity with little contribution from the cyclical components, we feel justified in qualifying the markedly optimistic reads from the Index over the last few months, Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans said.
The annualized growth rate of the coincident index, which gives a pulse of current activity, was 2.7 percent, slightly below its long term trend of 2.9 percent.
Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Extends Gains

The Indian rupee extended its previous day gains on Wednesday, July 17, 2013 following measures by the RBI to curb volatility in the currency. Besides, positive local shares also supported the unit. The domestic currency opened higher by 18 paise at Rs 59.14 to a dollar and slipped to a low of 59.22 before edging back to a high of 59.10 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.17, stronger by almost 16 paise or 0.26% as compared to previous close at 59.32.
Indian government bonds slumped and interest rate swaps surged on Tuesday, while the rupee posted modest gains after the central bank took steps to rein in rupee liquidity, in a move that will raise interest rates in the economy. The RBI pushed up the rate at which it lends money to banks by 200 basis points to 10.25 per cent. The marginal standing facility, which is the rate at which banks borrow additional funds from the RBI, will now be at 10.25 per cent. Bonds and stocks plunged. The RBI also said that it will conduct Open Market Sales of Government of India Securities of Rs 12000 crore on Thursday, 18 July 2013. The RBI said it will continue to closely monitor the markets, the liquidity situation and the macroeconomic developments and will take such other measures as may be necessary, consistent with the growth-inflation dynamics and macroeconomic stability.
India will fully and safely fund its current account deficit this fiscal year without depleting its forex reserves, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Tuesday. The deficit hit 4.8 percent of GDP in the previous fiscal year that ended in March. Chidambaram said he was confident of keeping the current account gap below last year's levels with some stern steps.
Meanwhile, domestic key benchmark indices edged higher in early trade boosted by government's decision on Tuesday, to relax overseas-investment rules for a number of sectors and as Asian shares inched higher. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian shares worth a net Rs 357.40 crore on Tuesday, 16 July 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 71.83 points or 0.36% to 19,923.06 while the CNX Nifty was up 18.25 points or 0.31% to 5,973.50.
The dollar held a three-week low on expectations Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will reiterate later in the day that U.S. monetary policy is to stay accommodative. The dollar stayed on the defensive in early Asian trade on Wednesday as investors suffered a case of cold feet ahead of Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony in Congress later in the day. The euro rose to 1.31 to the dollar. The dollar index slipped below the 83 mark ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke.
Source by Commodity Insights

LME Metals Prices- 16 July 2013

Source  by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Snaps Three Day Rally

The Indian rupee edged lower at commencement on Friday, July 12, 2013, snapping a three day rally against the US dollar on account of a rebound in the greenback overseas. The domestic currency opened lower by around 11 paise at Rs 59.79 to a dollar and climbed to a high of 59.74 before slipping back to a low of 59.8950 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.8925, weaker by 21 paise or 0.34% as compared to previous close at 59.69.

Rupee edged lower on Thursday as importers including oil firms bought dollars, while the initially big impact from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on U.S. stimulus faded later in the session. Bernanke said the Fed would continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy as inflation remained low and the unemployment rate might be understating the weakness of the labour market.

Meanwhile, domestic investors are awaiting industrial output and consumer price inflation data due after market hours on Friday for near-term direction. Industrial production is seen rising a tepid 1.5% in May 2013, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. Industrial production had risen 2.3% in April 2013. Inflation based on the combined consumer price index (CPI) of urban and rural India is projected at 9.3% in June 2013, same as in May 2013, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. CPI inflation had eased to 9.31% in May 2013 from 9.39% in April 2013.

Domestic key benchmark indices further pared gains to hit fresh intraday low in morning trade. Most Asian stocks fell on Friday, 12 July 2013, as investors turned cautious ahead of Chinese data, including second-quarter growth and June industrial production which is scheduled for release next week. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought Indian shares worth a net Rs 638.26 crore on Thursday, 11 July 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 124.92 points or 0.63% to 19,800.98 while the CNX Nifty was up 17.10 points or 0.29% to 5,952.20.

The U.S. dollar was quietly nursing its losses on Friday as the smoke cleared after a couple of sessions of wild action that left markets hoping for a bit of calm and consolidation.

Source by Commodity Insights

Crude Off Multi Month Highs, Mixed Undertone In Stocks Could Cap Gains

Crude......

MCX Crude oil

futures are trading a tick lower in early moves amid signs that some sell off would emerge in global prices ahead of the weekend. The counter slipped from above Rs 6400 per barrel yet again in last session after witnessing massive gains. However, the International Energy Agency stated that crude oil supply from non-OPEC countries would rise next year. However, oil had shot up to highest level in nearly an year and half as the recent Fed minutes suggested that the central bank would go slow in reducing the pace of its asset buying. WTI Crude futures hit a high above $107 per barrel but dropped thereafter. The commodity quotes at $104.74, down 17 cents per barrel right now. 

Geopolitical and other risks could pare any supply gains from a U.S. oil boom next year, the International Energy Agency warned Thursday, as it predicted global demand for the commodity will pick up pace. The caution comes as crude prices have already risen sharply on concerns an Egyptian crisis could cut shipments through the Suez Canal, dashing hopes a U.S. shale boom could put a lid on the prices that motorists pay at the pump.

In its monthly oil-market report, the IEA, which represents some of the world's largest oil consumers, said disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa region already have provided a major offset to rising North American supply and may continue to do so. In its first forecast for next year, the IEA said production from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would rise by 1.3 million barrels a day, an annual growth rate that has only been achieved once in the last twenty years.

The largest increase will come from the U.S., whose output will be boosted by 530,000 barrels a day thanks to newly developed shale-rock formations. But the agency also cautioned non-OPEC supply could be 500,000 barrels a day less than it currently predict because of geopolitical and technical risks.

US stocks rallied yesterday as the after effects of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes continued to support sentiments. The minutes had showed that officials were split on the future of the central bank's stimulus program. The S&P 500 managed to hit a closing high. However, this failed to boost the shares in Asia and a mixed undertone is being noted in major indices. Crude could extend the current slide further if the global equities maintain this momentum. MCX Crude oil dropped nearly Rs 100 yesterday and currently trade at Rs 6280 per barrel, down Rs 3 per barrel on the day. Prices failed to break above Rs 6300 in early moves, indicating some resistance on the higher side.

Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: BOJ To Continue With Its Current Monetary Policy Stance

The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary basewill increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen. Japan's economy is expected to recover moderately on the back of the resilience in domestic demand and the pick-up in overseas economies. The year on year rate ofchange in the CPI is likely to turn positive. Regarding risks, there remains ahigh degree of uncertainty concerning Japan's economy, including the prospectsfor the European debt problem, developments in the emerging and commodityexporting economies, and the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy. The Bankwill continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming toachieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary formaintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside anddownside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments asappropriate.

Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Rises After Bernanke Comments

The Indian rupee extended gains on Thursday, July 11, 2013 to its highest level in almost a week, after Bernanke backed sustained stimulus in a speech yesterday, after minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed officials debating whether to end the central bank's $85 billion-a-month of bond purchases. The local unit was also aided by steps from the central bank to curb speculative trading in the currency and positive local shares. The currency extended its rebound from a record low of 61.2125 per dollar touched on July 8, as Indian regulators curbed speculation in rupee derivatives. The domestic currency commenced stronger by 30 paise at Rs 59.39 to a dollar and inched up to a high of 59.38 before slipping back to a low of 59.58 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.5750, higher by around 12 paise or 0.19% as compared to previous close at 59.69.

Domestic key benchmark indices extended initial gains to hit fresh intraday high in morning trade. The S&P BSE Sensex hit its highest level in nearly 5 weeks as US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's statement on Wednesday, 10 July 2013, that the world's biggest economy will continue to need stimulus. Asian shares also climbed to a three-week high on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that highly accommodative monetary policy would be needed for the foreseeable future. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 347.37 points or 1.8% to 19,641.49 while the CNX Nifty was up 108.65 points or 1.87% to 5,925.35.

The dollar slumped in thin early Asian trade early on Thursday after dovish comments from Ben Bernanke forced markets to cut bullish bets on the greenback as they reassessed when the U.S. central bank was likely to start withdrawing stimulus.

Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: New Zealand PMI In Expansion Mod

The BNZ - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for June stood at 54.7 , whichwas 4.3 points lower than May, but still in solid expansionary mode. Comparedwith previous June results, the 2013 value was the highest since the June 2004result. Overall, the first half of 2013 has averaged a healthy 55.7, comparedwith only 49.6 for the previous six months. Given the ongoing healthy levels ofactivity in the sector, all five seasonally adjusted main diffusion indices wereagain in expansion for June. Production (55.5) led the way, while new orders(55.1) were close behind. Both these two indices have been the main drivers ofoverall expansion in the sector in recent months. Employment (5 1.9 ) remainedin expansion, although down 3.4 points from the previous month. Deliveries (55.4) remained at a stable level of activity, while finished stocks (52.7 ) alsoexperienced a higher level of activity from May.

Source by Commodity Insights

Commodities Buzz: Raw Sugar Prices Near Three Year Lows

Global Sugar prices slipped near a three-year low yet yesterday even as a further decline in output from Brazil's key Centre South region, as severe rains and the greater returns from converting cane into ethanol took their toll. The global raw sugar futures for October slipped down by around half a percent to end at 16.25 cents a pound in New York, tantalizingly near the lowest close since June 2010.

The drop came despite data showing a further decline in output from the Centre South, responsible for some 90% of Brazilian production, to 1.50m tonnes in the latest fortnightly period, the last half of June, well below a season high of 2.10m tonnes reached in the first half of May.

The total was also 16.4% below production in the second half of June 2012, the data, from cane industry group Unica, showed. The decline in output was down to severe rains, Unica said, although levels of precipitation varied greatly between regions, with some mills seeing very small setbacks, while in others the pace of cane processing slowed close to zero.

The volume of cane crushed fell 8.2% year on year to 29.1m tonnes during the fortnightly period. Mills turned most into ethanol, with the proportion converted into sugar coming in at 41.9% for both the two-week period and 2013-14 so far, which started in April. This compares with a cumulative 46.2% of cane turned into sugar as of this time last season, and was indeed the lowest figure but one of the last 10 years.

Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Declines On Chinese Concerns

Copper......

Chinese concerns related to demand trimmed the metals from the top. The prices slipped as markets expected slippage in trade data from China due to be released this week. Investor sentiment remained inclined towards key reports from US and China.
The EUR/Dollar pair was static at 1.2863 from last night. Indian Rupee on the other hand recovered some of the lost ground and was at 60.19, against the Dollar, up 0.68 percent. The recovery in Rupee is tarnishing the image of commodities.
China unwrought Copper imports were down by 14.5 percent in May. Another fall in the imports will result in driving Copper prices further down. May unwrought Copper imports were 358672 tonnes.
Copper investors were also digesting some potentially negative supply-side news Tuesday. Rio Tinto PLC on Tuesday began exporting copper from its $6.2 billion Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, while PT Freeport Indonesia's president director said underground mining at the company's operations in Papua has resumed almost two months after a fatal tunnel collapse.
The LME flagship copper contract was 0.54 percent lower at $6741 per metric ton. Aluminum was unchanged at $1784 per tonne. MCX Copper was down by 1.95 percent to Rs 410 per kg. The prices of Copper tested a low of Rs 409 per kg and a high of Rs 416.5 per kg.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: China's PPI And CPI Rises In June

National Bureau of Statistics of China said that Chinese CPI rose to an annual rate of 2.7%, from 2.1% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected Chinese CPI to rise to 2.5% last month.
National Bureau of Statistics of China added that Chinese PPI rose to an annual rate of -2.7%, from -2.9% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected Chinese PPI to rise to -2.7% last month.
Source by Commodity Insights

LME Copper Recovers Ahead of US Data

Copper...........

Copper recovered ahead of US and Chinese data on Tuesday, gaining lost ground. The metal was lower on Monday, down $ 63 per tonne to $ 6778 per tonne. When last seen LME three month prices of Copper was at $ 6830 per tonne. Dollar was trading at 1.2859 against the Euro. The Dollar settled at 1.2868 against the Euro on Monday. Indian Rupee is mildly higher against the Dollar at 60.14, down 0.80 percent.
LME base metal prices could be rangebound as the market awaits data from China and the U.S. this week for direction. While China's CPI data could influence markets, investors will be closely watching the release of the latest Chinese trade data and the minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting on Wednesday.
The Chinese trade data will be eyed for signals of base metal demand; while the FOMC minutes will be picked apart for further clues as to when the Federal Reserve may start to taper its commodities-boosting quantitative easing program.
After three straight weeks of increase in short positions COMEX Copper fund managers, Commitment of traders (CoT) report, showed heavy rise in long positions. Meanwhile, the total short positions declined by 3206 contracts taking total short contracts number to 56428 contract on week ending 2 July 2013, from 59634 contract in the previous week.
CoT report showed that long contracts increased by 2428 contracts and were at 29465 contracts from 27037 contracts a week before. Total net short positions therefore moved up by 17.3 percent to 26963 contracts from 32597 contracts a week before.
MCX Copper contract for August expiry closed at Rs 418.15 per kg, up 0.10 percent. The process tested a high of Rs 419.75 per kg and a low of Rs 414.6 per kg. The contract is resisted at Rs 420 and 422 per kg. Supports are still active at Rs 418 and 415 per kg.
Source by Commodity Insights

Castor seed To Rise Further On Strong Oil Export Demand

Bullish trend is likely to continue in castor seed market on account of weak sowing progress in the current years along with strong export demand of castor oil. The NCDEX futures increased byRs47 per quintal in the last trading.
As per latest data released by Ministry of Agriculture, the total sowing acreage of castor seed as on 27th June reported at 0.33 lakh hectares, down 23% from the last year in the same period. This was mainly due to low prices of castor seed throughout the year.
The strong export of castor oil will add some more gains in castor seed market. As per the latest release from SEA of India, the total exports of castor oil in May is reported at 59,990 tonnes , up 52% from the last year.
The NCDEX August Castor seed futures increased by Rs 47 per quintal today to close at Rs 3482 per quintal. The NCDEX futures added 6.24% in open interest indicating fresh long positions by traders. Technically, prices are likely to gather some supports from 3440-3442 levels while resistances are likely at 3520-3530 levels in the near term.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: U.S Markit PMI Signals Modest Improvement In June

At 51.9, the final Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) signaled only a modest manufacturing expansion in June. Having fallen from52.3 in May, and dropping below the earlier flash estimate of 52.2, the PMIindicated the slowest rate of growth since last October. The PMI averaged 52.1in Q2 as a whole. This was down from 54.9 in Q1 and was the lowest reading since Q3 2012.
Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Slips Ahead Of Supply Data

Oil........
Crude oil futures slipped in the Asia electronic session today giving back the gains of nearly $2 yesterday ahead of the API supply data. The mixed movement in Asian equities may also drag on the prices.
Japanese and Australian stocks rose Tuesday after upbeat manufacturing reports from the U.S. and the euro zone, while Hong Kong shares retreated on weakened activity at Chinese factories.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average climbed 1.1%, and Taiwan’s Taiex inched up 0.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite gave up 0.5%.
Their gains came as stocks on Wall Street ended higher after the Institute for Supply Management reported an increase in its manufacturing index, and the euro-zone’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for June climbed to a 16-month high.
Crude futures for August delivery are trading down 5 cents at $97.88 a barrel in electronic trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it rose $1.43, or 1.5%, following reports of stronger manufacturing activity in the euro zone and the U.S. in June.
Investors were awaiting cues on energy supplies from a weekly report on U.S. crude-oil stockpiles. Figures were due later Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern time from the American Petroleum Institute, with a report from the Energy Information Administration slated for Wednesday.
U.S. commercial crude-oil stocks likely fell 3 million barrels in the week ended June 28, according to a Platts survey of analysts. The projected fall would be “in line with seasonal norms, as shown by the week-on-week change in the Energy Information Administration’s five-year average,” Platts said.
Analysts were also expecting a 1-million-barrel build in gasoline stocks, and a 1.3-million-barrel increase in distillate stocks.
MCX July crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 5800 levels with support around Rs 5745 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Australian Manufacturing Improves In June

Australia's manufacturing sector showed modest signs of a rebound in June with a key industry gauge nearing expansionary territory for the first time in two years.
The Australian Industry Group's performance of manufacturing index rose 5.8 points to 49.6 in June from May. That was below the 50 point level that signals an expansion. The index has risen nearly 13 points in the past two months, in a nascent sign deep interest rate cuts and a sharp decline in the Australian dollar may be helping boost the sector.
Still, the latest rise wasn't enough to offset concerns about the pace at which the economy is rebalancing away from its reliance on resources as a long mining boom slows.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's policy-setting board meets on Tuesday, with most economists expecting rates to stay on hold after the central bank cut the cash-rate target to a record 2.75% in May. The Australian dollar, meanwhile, has fallen about 10% since early May. Until recently it had recorded its longest stretch above parity with the U.S. greenback in three decades, making the nation's exports less competitive.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: China Factory Activity Shrinks For 2nd Month: HSBC

HSBC's monthly gauge of Chinese factory activity, released Monday, showed further slowing in June, as the index hit its lowest level since September 2012. The HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, dropped to 48.2 from May's 49.2 and down from a preliminary reading of 48.3, marking the second month in a row that the result was below 50 -- the dividing line between growth and contraction. Among the subindexes, total new orders fell for a second straight month, while new export orders fell at their fastest rate since March 2009.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: China Average Home Prices Rise In June

Average housing prices in 100 of China's cities continued to rise in June from a year earlier, but compared with a month earlier, prices rose at a slower rate for the third straight month, figures from private data provider China Real Estate Index System showed Monday.
Residential housing prices were up 7.40% from a year ago in June, for the seventh monthly year-on-year rise, after a 6.90% gain in May. But the on-month increase eased to 0.77% from May's 0.81%, according to the index based on a survey of developers and real-estate companies.
Still, it was the 13th consecutive on-month increase despite government efforts to keep property prices from spiraling higher.
A total of 71 of the cities covered in the index showed higher month-over-month prices, with 29 cities posting falls. In May there were 77 cities showing gains from the preceding month.
CREIS said that the average price of residential housing climbed to 10,258 yuan ($1,671) per square meter during the month.
In June, a liquidity squeeze caused some banks to tighten mortgage issuance, such as removing discounts on mortgage rates, as well as prolonging the approval process, CREIS said. "Alongside uncertainties in the growth of the broader economy and the credit crunch, many cities are increasing housing supply, which would reduce the pace of home price growth," the data provider added.
Prices in Beijing, which has been the most active in implementing a central government order to strictly enforce a 20% tax on profits of some home sales, rose 1.59%.
Source by Commodity Insights